In NBA 2024-25 Nick Smith Jr. was worth −14.3 points over expected per 100 possessions: −1.7 points of field-goal percentage above what his looks were worth, and −13.5 shooting-foul free throws over expected.
| Measure | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points over expected / 100 | −14.3 | 0.0 |
| Field goals attempted | 568 | — |
| Field goal % | 39.1 | 40.8 |
| Expected points per shot | 1.16 | — |
| shooting-foul free throws attempted | 28 | 105.2 |
| shooting-foul free throws over expected / 100 | −13.5 | 0.0 |
| Possessions | 572 | — |
| Percentile among qualified players | 3 | 50 |
Teams: CHA. Seasons covered for NBA: 2020-21 to 2025-26.
What this does not measure: it blends playstyle, contact-seeking skill and officiating without separating them, it says nothing about defence beyond the lineup layer, and it is not evidence of referee bias.
Definitions: points over expected, shot-making over expected, free throws drawn over expected.
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