What a player adds beyond what his shots were worth. It combines the field-goal points he produces above the difficulty of the looks he took with the value of the free throws he draws above the rate those same situations usually produce.
POE/100 = FG points over expected /100 + (league FT% x drawn FTs over expected /100)
Verified against the shipped exports: the ratio of (poe100 - fgPoe100) to ftaoe100 has a median of 0.776 against a stated league FT% of 0.77.
| Lowest | 10th | Median | 90th | Highest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -30.6 | -12.2 | -0.6 | 11.5 | 28.3 |
Zero is the league. Positive means a player produced more than his shot diet and his contact were worth; negative means less. It is a rate, so a low-possession player can post an extreme figure on very little evidence.
It does not separate playstyle from skill from officiating, it carries no defensive information, and it is not evidence of referee bias.
Measured in points per 100 possessions, for a player.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.