Expected points per shot

What is expected points per shot?

What the average attempt from this player's shot diet is worth, before anyone makes or misses it. It prices each shot by location and context and averages over every attempt he took.

Normal range

Expected points per shot: the range across 1690 published values

Lowest	10th	Median	90th	Highest
1.06	1.16	1.23	1.35	1.74

How to read it

Higher means an easier or better-selected shot diet, not better shooting. A rim-heavy big will sit high and a long-two shooter low, regardless of how well either shoots.

What it does not measure

It says nothing about whether the shots went in, and it cannot see how open the shooter was.

Related

• Expected field goal percentage
• Shot-making over expected

Measured in points per field-goal attempt, for a player.

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.