Expected field goal percentage

What is expected field goal percentage?

The field goal percentage the model expects from this player's shot diet, given where and in what context the attempts came from.

Normal range

Expected field goal percentage: the range across 1690 published values

Lowest	10th	Median	90th	Highest
36.7	41.3	45.8	55.7	77.6

How to read it

Compare it to actual FG%. The gap between the two is shot-making over expected.

What it does not measure

Openness is not an input, so a player who is consistently unguarded will beat his expectation for reasons the number attributes to him.

Related

• Shot-making over expected
• Expected points per shot

Measured in percent, for a player.

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.