How much better or worse a player converted than his looks were worth. It is his field goal percentage minus the percentage the model expected from the same shots.
Make OE = FG% - xFG%
Verified: the identity holds across every shipped row to within rounding.
| Lowest | 10th | Median | 90th | Highest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -14.6 | -4.8 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 13.6 |
Shot quality is already priced out, so this is shooting alone. Positive means he beat his own shot diet.
Small samples swing it hard, and it cannot tell a hot streak from a durable skill.
Measured in percentage points of field goal percentage, for a player.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.