In NBA 2025-26 Rayan Rupert was worth −18.7 points over expected per 100 possessions: −6.4 points of field-goal percentage above what his looks were worth, and −6.3 shooting-foul free throws over expected.
| Measure | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points over expected / 100 | −18.7 | 0.0 |
| Field goals attempted | 313 | — |
| Field goal % | 39.3 | 45.7 |
| Expected points per shot | 1.24 | — |
| shooting-foul free throws attempted | 45 | 66.2 |
| shooting-foul free throws over expected / 100 | −6.3 | 0.0 |
| Possessions | 337 | — |
| Percentile among qualified players | 24 | 50 |
Teams: POR, MEM. Seasons covered for NBA: 2020-21 to 2025-26.
What this does not measure: it blends playstyle, contact-seeking skill and officiating without separating them, it says nothing about defence beyond the lineup layer, and it is not evidence of referee bias.
Definitions: points over expected, shot-making over expected, free throws drawn over expected.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.