In NBA 2025-26 Nikola Jović was worth −20.5 points over expected per 100 possessions: −8.3 points of field-goal percentage above what his looks were worth, and +0.7 shooting-foul free throws over expected.
| Measure | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points over expected / 100 | −20.5 | 0.0 |
| Field goals attempted | 314 | — |
| Field goal % | 36.6 | 45.0 |
| Expected points per shot | 1.27 | — |
| shooting-foul free throws attempted | 73 | 70.3 |
| shooting-foul free throws over expected / 100 | +0.7 | 0.0 |
| Possessions | 362 | — |
| Percentile among qualified players | 57 | 50 |
Teams: MIA. Seasons covered for NBA: 2020-21 to 2025-26.
What this does not measure: it blends playstyle, contact-seeking skill and officiating without separating them, it says nothing about defence beyond the lineup layer, and it is not evidence of referee bias.
Definitions: points over expected, shot-making over expected, free throws drawn over expected.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.