In NBA 2025-26 Marvin Bagley III was worth +10.7 points over expected per 100 possessions: +4.3 points of field-goal percentage above what his looks were worth, and +7.0 shooting-foul free throws over expected.
| Measure | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points over expected / 100 | +10.7 | 0.0 |
| Field goals attempted | 411 | — |
| Field goal % | 61.8 | 57.5 |
| Expected points per shot | 1.37 | — |
| shooting-foul free throws attempted | 126 | 92.5 |
| shooting-foul free throws over expected / 100 | +7.0 | 0.0 |
| Possessions | 482 | — |
| Percentile among qualified players | 84 | 50 |
Teams: WAS, DAL. Seasons covered for NBA: 2020-21 to 2025-26.
What this does not measure: it blends playstyle, contact-seeking skill and officiating without separating them, it says nothing about defence beyond the lineup layer, and it is not evidence of referee bias.
Definitions: points over expected, shot-making over expected, free throws drawn over expected.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.