In Lega Basket Serie A 2022-23 Aleksej Nikolic was worth −3.0 points over expected per 100 possessions: −2.0 points of field-goal percentage above what his looks were worth, and −1.9 free throws drawn over expected.
| Measure | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points over expected / 100 | −3.0 | 0.0 |
| Field goals attempted | 139 | — |
| Field goal % | 38.1 | 40.1 |
| Expected points per shot | 1.25 | — |
| free throws drawn attempted | 36 | 39.1 |
| free throws drawn over expected / 100 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Possessions | 162 | — |
| Percentile among qualified players | 42 | 50 |
Teams: Sassari, Brescia. Seasons covered for Lega Basket Serie A: 2020-21 to 2025-26.
What this does not measure: it blends playstyle, contact-seeking skill and officiating without separating them, it says nothing about defence beyond the lineup layer, and it is not evidence of referee bias.
Definitions: points over expected, shot-making over expected, free throws drawn over expected.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.