In Lega Basket Serie A 2023-24 Nicolò Melli was worth −2.5 points over expected per 100 possessions: +4.3 points of field-goal percentage above what his looks were worth, and −2.5 free throws drawn over expected.
| Measure | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points over expected / 100 | −2.5 | 0.0 |
| Field goals attempted | 192 | — |
| Field goal % | 53.1 | 48.9 |
| Expected points per shot | 1.29 | — |
| free throws drawn attempted | 42 | 47.7 |
| free throws drawn over expected / 100 | −2.5 | 0.0 |
| Possessions | 225 | — |
| Percentile among qualified players | 38 | 50 |
Teams: Milano. Seasons covered for Lega Basket Serie A: 2020-21 to 2025-26.
What this does not measure: it blends playstyle, contact-seeking skill and officiating without separating them, it says nothing about defence beyond the lineup layer, and it is not evidence of referee bias.
Definitions: points over expected, shot-making over expected, free throws drawn over expected.
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