In Greek Basket League 2023-24 Tillman, Justin was worth +8.9 points over expected per 100 possessions: +4.8 points of field-goal percentage above what his looks were worth, and −3.6 free throws drawn over expected.
| Measure | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points over expected / 100 | +8.9 | 0.0 |
| Field goals attempted | 198 | — |
| Field goal % | 55.1 | 50.2 |
| Expected points per shot | 1.22 | — |
| free throws drawn attempted | 51 | 59.1 |
| free throws drawn over expected / 100 | −3.6 | 0.0 |
| Possessions | 223 | — |
| Percentile among qualified players | 37 | 50 |
Teams: AEK. Seasons covered for Greek Basket League: 2022-23 to 2025-26.
What this does not measure: it blends playstyle, contact-seeking skill and officiating without separating them, it says nothing about defence beyond the lineup layer, and it is not evidence of referee bias.
Definitions: points over expected, shot-making over expected, free throws drawn over expected.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.