In Liga ACB 2025-26 Matt Costello was worth −4.5 points over expected per 100 possessions: +2.4 points of field-goal percentage above what his looks were worth, and −6.2 free throws drawn over expected.
| Measure | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points over expected / 100 | −4.5 | 0.0 |
| Field goals attempted | 177 | — |
| Field goal % | 48.6 | 46.2 |
| Expected points per shot | 1.34 | — |
| free throws drawn attempted | 36 | 46.3 |
| free throws drawn over expected / 100 | −6.2 | 0.0 |
| Possessions | 167 | — |
| Percentile among qualified players | 30 | 50 |
Teams: VBC. Seasons covered for Liga ACB: 2020-21 to 2025-26.
What this does not measure: it blends playstyle, contact-seeking skill and officiating without separating them, it says nothing about defence beyond the lineup layer, and it is not evidence of referee bias.
Definitions: points over expected, shot-making over expected, free throws drawn over expected.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.