In ABA Liga 2023-24 Brandon Paul was worth −14.4 points over expected per 100 possessions: −4.4 points of field-goal percentage above what his looks were worth, and −5.1 free throws drawn over expected.
| Measure | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Points over expected / 100 | −14.4 | 0.0 |
| Field goals attempted | 168 | — |
| Field goal % | 35.7 | 40.1 |
| Expected points per shot | 1.29 | — |
| free throws drawn attempted | 38 | 47.1 |
| free throws drawn over expected / 100 | −5.1 | 0.0 |
| Possessions | 179 | — |
| Percentile among qualified players | 33 | 50 |
Teams: Budućnost. Seasons covered for ABA Liga: 2020-21 to 2025-26.
What this does not measure: it blends playstyle, contact-seeking skill and officiating without separating them, it says nothing about defence beyond the lineup layer, and it is not evidence of referee bias.
Definitions: points over expected, shot-making over expected, free throws drawn over expected.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.