They are the two halves this site deliberately keeps apart. Shot quality is what the looks were worth before anyone shot them. Shot-making is whether the player beat those looks. A player can be excellent at one and poor at the other.
| How good were the shots? | Did he beat the shots? | |
|---|---|---|
| Question | How good were the shots? | Did he beat the shots? |
| Metric | Expected points per shot | Shot-making over expected |
| Driven by | Selection, spacing, playmaking | Touch and shooting skill |
| Stability | High: shot diet repeats | Lower: shooting varies year to year |
Read them together. A rising shot-value figure driven by shot quality is a different claim from one driven by shot-making, and only the first is mostly under a team's control.
Neither attributes shot quality between the player, the system and the coach.
Definitions: Expected points per shot and Shot-making over expected.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.