Expected points vs expected value

What is the difference between expected points and expected value in basketball?

Expected points values a shot that was taken. Expected value, as this site uses it in the clutch-decision layer, values a choice between options at the moment it was made, in win probability rather than points.

Side by side

Expected points vs expected value: what each measures

	Points per shot	Points of win probability
Unit	Points per shot	Points of win probability
Scope	One attempt	A decision between two options
Depends on score and clock	No	Entirely
Uses the outcome	No	No, and a test asserts it

Which should you use?

Expected points tells you whether a shot was a good shot. Expected value tells you whether it was the right shot to take in that situation.

What neither measures

Neither says whether the shot went in, which is the point of both.

Definitions: Expected points per shot and Decision expected-value lost.

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.