Decision expected-value lost

What is decision expected-value lost?

How much win probability a team gave up by taking the worse of the two end-game options, scored on expectation at the moment of the decision.

Normal range

Decision expected-value lost: the range across 30 published values

Lowest	10th	Median	90th	Highest
0.97	1.66	2.34	3.19	3.23

How to read it

It cannot go below zero by construction, so 'distinguishably worse than optimal' is true of every team and means nothing. The site ships overlap tiers instead, and the league resolves into two.

What it does not measure

The outcome is never an input: a test re-scores every decision with the result flipped and asserts identical answers. It therefore says nothing about whether a given shot went in.

Related

• Points over expected per 100 possessions

Measured in points of win probability, for a team.

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.