Defensive rating vs shot quality forced

Is defensive rating or shot quality forced the better measure of a defence?

Defensive rating counts what a defence conceded. Shot quality forced prices what it allowed opponents to attempt, before those attempts went in or out. The second is far more repeatable, which the site measured rather than assumed.

Defensive rating (DRtg)

Points a team concedes per 100 defensive possessions.

DRtg = points allowed / possessions x 100

Side by side

Defensive rating vs shot quality forced: what each measures

	Yes	No
Separates shot quality from opponent shooting	Yes	No
Split-half reliability on this site's data	0.981 over 180 team-seasons	Not published here
Affected by opponent hot streaks	Little	Heavily
Unit	Expected points per shot vs league	Points per 100 possessions

Which should you use?

Use shot quality forced to ask what a defence makes opponents do, and points allowed as the unadjusted outcome. The site publishes both and orders its defensive pillars by measured reliability.

What neither measures

Neither is a player metric. The shot-level player version was built and rejected at 0.348 split-half reliability.

Definitions: Shot quality forced.

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.