How good the shots a defence allows are, priced by the same model that prices offence: expected points per shot faced, against the league.
| Lowest | 10th | Median | 90th | Highest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.042 | -0.025 | -0.001 | 0.029 | 0.063 |
Negative is better: the defence forced worse shots than the league average. Split-half reliability 0.981 over 180 team-seasons, the most reliable of the three pillars.
Team-level on purpose. The player version was built and rejected at 0.348 split-half, because splitting each shot five ways is team defence wearing a player's name.
Measured in expected points per shot vs league, for a team.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.