True shooting percentage asks how efficiently a player scored. Points over expected asks how much he scored above what his shots were worth. The first is an efficiency rate, the second is a residual against a model, and they disagree whenever a player's shot diet is unusually easy or unusually hard.
Points per scoring attempt, counting free throws at a fixed 0.44 weight.
TS% = PTS / (2 x (FGA + 0.44 x FTA))
| Yes, every attempt is priced by location and context | No, a layup and a stepback count the same | |
|---|---|---|
| Prices shot difficulty | Yes, every attempt is priced by location and context | No, a layup and a stepback count the same |
| Values free throws | Yes, above the rate the situation usually produces | Yes, but at a fixed 0.44 weight per attempt |
| Baseline | That season's own league rate | None; it is an absolute rate |
| Unit | Points per 100 possessions | Percent |
Use true shooting to ask who scored efficiently. Use points over expected to ask who beat the shots they took. A high-TS% rim finisher and a high-POE pull-up shooter are doing different things.
Neither separates a player from his team's spacing or playmaking, and neither measures defence.
Definitions: Points over expected per 100 possessions.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.