Points over expected vs effective field goal percentage

How does points over expected differ from effective field goal percentage?

Effective field goal percentage credits a three as worth 1.5 twos and stops there. Points over expected goes further: it prices every attempt by how likely it was to go in from where and how it was taken, then reports the gap.

Effective field goal percentage (eFG%)

Field goal percentage with threes weighted for their extra point.

eFG% = (FGM + 0.5 x 3PM) / FGA

Side by side

Points over expected vs effective field goal percentage: what each measures

	Only three versus two	Yes, continuously
Adjusts for shot location	Only three versus two	Yes, continuously
Includes free throws	No	Yes
Rewards shot selection	Indirectly, by rewarding threes	Separately: shot value and shot-making are different lenses
Unit	Percent	Points per 100 possessions

Which should you use?

Effective field goal percentage is the better quick read on shooting mix. Points over expected is the better read on whether a player exceeded his own looks.

What neither measures

Neither can see how open the shooter was; openness is not in the public data.

Definitions: Points over expected per 100 possessions.

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