Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led NBA in shot value in 2025-26 at +27.4 points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality, shot-making and drawn free throws in one number.
| # | Player | Team | Poss | Shot-making | Free throws | Points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | 1542 | +8.0 | +12.7 | +27.4 |
| 2 | Jimmy Butler III | GSW | 539 | +1.7 | +24.1 | +25.5 |
| 3 | DeMar DeRozan | SAC | 1103 | +6.0 | +13.1 | +23.6 |
| 4 | Luka Garza | BOS | 391 | +8.6 | +6.9 | +23.0 |
| 5 | Jalen Duren | DET | 969 | +4.7 | +19.6 | +21.8 |
| 6 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 1351 | +10.4 | +3.3 | +21.7 |
| 7 | Jordan Miller | LAC | 469 | +6.1 | +14.8 | +21.4 |
| 8 | Zion Williamson | NOP | 996 | +3.2 | +23.2 | +20.6 |
| 9 | Luka Dončić | LAL | 1728 | +6.5 | +11.0 | +20.0 |
| 10 | Kevin Durant | HOU | 1479 | +8.3 | +0.8 | +19.4 |
| 11 | Luke Kennard | ATL / LAL | 444 | +10.1 | −10.2 | +19.1 |
| 12 | Austin Reaves | LAL | 920 | +5.5 | +9.2 | +18.9 |
| 13 | Kawhi Leonard | LAC | 1360 | +5.5 | +5.9 | +18.2 |
| 14 | Joel Embiid | PHI | 830 | +2.8 | +14.1 | +17.7 |
| 15 | James Harden | LAC / CLE | 1347 | +1.6 | +13.3 | +17.1 |
| 16 | Keyonte George | UTA | 1036 | +2.3 | +11.2 | +16.3 |
| 17 | Jaxson Hayes | LAL | 326 | +5.0 | +15.3 | +16.1 |
| 18 | Stephen Curry | GSW | 882 | +5.4 | +0.2 | +14.7 |
| 19 | Jamal Murray | DEN | 1444 | +5.5 | −1.0 | +14.4 |
| 20 | Cam Spencer | MEM | 609 | +6.6 | −5.8 | +14.4 |
| 21 | Anthony Edwards | MIN | 1361 | +3.6 | +6.8 | +13.6 |
| 22 | Deni Avdija | POR | 1314 | −0.7 | +19.4 | +13.6 |
| 23 | Jonas Valančiūnas | DEN | 461 | +6.4 | +3.9 | +13.4 |
| 24 | Maxime Raynaud | SAC | 733 | +7.5 | −0.3 | +13.1 |
| 25 | Zach LaVine | SAC | 590 | +3.9 | +2.8 | +12.8 |
Ranked over 297 qualified players. This measures points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.