Luke Kennard led NBA in shot-making in 2025-26 at +25.9 field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality is already priced out, so this is shooting alone.
| # | Player | Team | FGA | FG% | Expected FG% | FG points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Kennard | ATL / LAL | 443 | 53.3 | 43.2 | +25.9 |
| 2 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 1132 | 56.9 | 46.5 | +18.1 |
| 3 | Luka Garza | BOS | 357 | 57.7 | 49.1 | +18.0 |
| 4 | Kevin Durant | HOU | 1376 | 52.0 | 43.8 | +16.9 |
| 5 | Cam Spencer | MEM | 556 | 47.3 | 40.7 | +16.8 |
| 6 | Isaiah Joe | OKC | 543 | 45.5 | 40.4 | +15.2 |
| 7 | Sam Merrill | CLE | 484 | 46.1 | 40.9 | +15.1 |
| 8 | Rui Hachimura | LAL | 597 | 51.4 | 45.5 | +15.0 |
| 9 | Bobby Portis | MIL | 750 | 48.8 | 43.4 | +14.4 |
| 10 | T.J. McConnell | IND | 450 | 53.8 | 46.0 | +14.3 |
| 11 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | 1321 | 55.3 | 47.3 | +14.3 |
| 12 | Deandre Ayton | LAL | 601 | 67.0 | 59.0 | +14.2 |
| 13 | Payton Pritchard | BOS | 1091 | 46.4 | 40.7 | +13.8 |
| 14 | Jakob Poeltl | TOR | 310 | 70.0 | 61.8 | +13.7 |
| 15 | Jamal Murray | DEN | 1360 | 48.3 | 42.8 | +13.3 |
| 16 | Maxime Raynaud | SAC | 671 | 57.1 | 49.6 | +13.3 |
| 17 | AJ Green | MIL | 618 | 42.4 | 38.3 | +12.6 |
| 18 | Kon Knueppel | CHA | 1084 | 47.5 | 42.8 | +12.5 |
| 19 | Duncan Robinson | DET | 698 | 45.6 | 41.2 | +12.3 |
| 20 | Svi Mykhailiuk | UTA | 362 | 47.8 | 43.0 | +11.8 |
| 21 | Stephen Curry | GSW | 799 | 46.8 | 41.4 | +11.8 |
| 22 | Luka Dončić | LAL | 1457 | 47.6 | 41.1 | +11.4 |
| 23 | Baylor Scheierman | BOS | 333 | 45.4 | 40.8 | +11.4 |
| 24 | Kawhi Leonard | LAC | 1258 | 50.5 | 45.0 | +10.8 |
| 25 | Jonas Valančiūnas | DEN | 390 | 58.2 | 51.8 | +10.6 |
Ranked over 297 qualified players. This measures field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.