Jimmy Butler III led NBA in foul-drawing in 2025-26 at +24.1 shooting-foul free throws over expected per 100 possessions. Measured against the season's own league rate, not a flat average.
| # | Player | Team | Poss | FTA | Expected | shooting-foul free throws over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Butler III | GSW | 539 | 234 | 104.3 | +24.1 |
| 2 | Zion Williamson | NOP | 996 | 423 | 191.6 | +23.2 |
| 3 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 779 | 307 | 150.2 | +20.1 |
| 4 | Jalen Duren | DET | 969 | 375 | 185.0 | +19.6 |
| 5 | Deni Avdija | POR | 1314 | 508 | 252.6 | +19.4 |
| 6 | Rudy Gobert | MIN | 647 | 248 | 123.4 | +19.3 |
| 7 | Paolo Banchero | ORL | 1419 | 539 | 274.5 | +18.6 |
| 8 | Brandon Williams | DAL | 769 | 268 | 149.3 | +15.4 |
| 9 | Jaxson Hayes | LAL | 326 | 113 | 63.1 | +15.3 |
| 10 | Jordan Miller | LAC | 469 | 161 | 91.5 | +14.8 |
| 11 | Stephon Castle | SAS | 1043 | 352 | 198.9 | +14.7 |
| 12 | Joel Embiid | PHI | 830 | 276 | 158.8 | +14.1 |
| 13 | Bennedict Mathurin | IND / LAC | 795 | 262 | 153.3 | +13.7 |
| 14 | James Harden | LAC / CLE | 1347 | 439 | 260.5 | +13.3 |
| 15 | DeMar DeRozan | SAC | 1103 | 357 | 212.3 | +13.1 |
| 16 | Daniel Gafford | DAL | 390 | 124 | 74.4 | +12.7 |
| 17 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | 1542 | 496 | 300.1 | +12.7 |
| 18 | Moussa Diabaté | CHA | 436 | 138 | 85.2 | +12.1 |
| 19 | Jerami Grant | POR | 803 | 250 | 154.0 | +11.9 |
| 20 | Jarrett Allen | CLE | 644 | 199 | 122.3 | +11.9 |
| 21 | Aaron Gordon | DEN | 440 | 134 | 83.5 | +11.5 |
| 22 | Keyonte George | UTA | 1036 | 315 | 198.6 | +11.2 |
| 23 | Mark Williams | PHX | 513 | 154 | 97.3 | +11.1 |
| 24 | Luka Dončić | LAL | 1728 | 522 | 331.2 | +11.0 |
| 25 | Pelle Larsson | MIA | 654 | 195 | 125.2 | +10.7 |
Ranked over 297 qualified players. This measures shooting-foul free throws over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.