Payton Pritchard led NBA in shot-making in 2024-25 at +21.8 field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality is already priced out, so this is shooting alone.
| # | Player | Team | FGA | FG% | Expected FG% | FG points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Pritchard | BOS | 866 | 47.2 | 39.2 | +21.8 |
| 2 | Ty Jerome | CLE | 618 | 51.6 | 42.5 | +20.7 |
| 3 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 1364 | 57.6 | 47.5 | +20.3 |
| 4 | Seth Curry | CHA | 343 | 47.8 | 40.6 | +20.1 |
| 5 | Sam Hauser | BOS | 474 | 45.1 | 39.0 | +18.0 |
| 6 | Kevin Durant | PHX | 1124 | 52.7 | 44.1 | +16.7 |
| 7 | Keon Ellis | SAC | 464 | 48.9 | 42.4 | +16.5 |
| 8 | Luke Kennard | MEM | 431 | 47.8 | 41.2 | +16.4 |
| 9 | Vít Krejčí | ATL | 292 | 49.7 | 43.3 | +15.9 |
| 10 | AJ Green | MIL | 424 | 42.9 | 37.9 | +15.8 |
| 11 | Isaiah Joe | OKC | 588 | 44.0 | 39.7 | +13.7 |
| 12 | Brice Sensabaugh | UTA | 599 | 45.9 | 40.6 | +13.3 |
| 13 | Tyrese Haliburton | IND | 1006 | 47.3 | 41.4 | +13.1 |
| 14 | Aaron Nesmith | IND | 379 | 50.7 | 45.5 | +12.8 |
| 15 | Nikola Vučević | CHI | 1038 | 53.0 | 46.9 | +12.8 |
| 16 | Zach LaVine | CHI / SAC | 1223 | 51.1 | 46.4 | +11.8 |
| 17 | Stephen Curry | GSW | 1258 | 44.8 | 40.2 | +11.7 |
| 18 | Grayson Allen | PHX | 489 | 44.8 | 40.7 | +11.7 |
| 19 | Malik Beasley | DET | 1071 | 43.0 | 39.9 | +10.9 |
| 20 | Khris Middleton | MIL / WAS | 337 | 47.5 | 41.9 | +10.6 |
| 21 | Brandon Clarke | MEM | 380 | 62.1 | 55.7 | +10.5 |
| 22 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC | 893 | 59.0 | 53.1 | +10.4 |
| 23 | Bradley Beal | PHX | 694 | 49.7 | 44.4 | +10.4 |
| 24 | Harrison Barnes | SAS | 683 | 50.8 | 46.8 | +10.4 |
| 25 | DeMar DeRozan | SAC | 1308 | 47.7 | 42.2 | +10.3 |
Ranked over 288 qualified players. This measures field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.