Nikola Jokić led NBA in shot-making in 2023-24 at +17.6 field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality is already priced out, so this is shooting alone.
| # | Player | Team | FGA | FG% | Expected FG% | FG points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 1411 | 58.3 | 48.7 | +17.6 |
| 2 | Sam Hauser | BOS | 558 | 44.6 | 39.5 | +17.1 |
| 3 | Grayson Allen | PHX | 682 | 49.9 | 44.4 | +15.7 |
| 4 | T.J. McConnell | IND | 593 | 55.6 | 47.5 | +15.5 |
| 5 | Al Horford | BOS | 419 | 51.1 | 45.1 | +14.8 |
| 6 | Payton Pritchard | BOS | 635 | 46.8 | 40.8 | +14.8 |
| 7 | Norman Powell | LAC | 768 | 48.6 | 42.9 | +14.5 |
| 8 | Luke Kennard | MEM | 315 | 44.8 | 40.5 | +13.9 |
| 9 | Jalen Smith | IND | 395 | 59.2 | 52.9 | +13.4 |
| 10 | Kevin Durant | PHX | 1436 | 52.3 | 45.7 | +12.9 |
| 11 | Isaiah Joe | OKC | 485 | 45.8 | 41.4 | +12.7 |
| 12 | Mike Conley | MIN | 644 | 45.6 | 41.3 | +12.6 |
| 13 | Kyrie Irving | DAL | 1131 | 49.7 | 44.6 | +12.1 |
| 14 | Stephen Curry | GSW | 1445 | 45.0 | 40.5 | +12.0 |
| 15 | Tyus Jones | WAS | 666 | 48.9 | 44.0 | +11.6 |
| 16 | Khris Middleton | MIL | 643 | 49.3 | 43.1 | +11.6 |
| 17 | Kawhi Leonard | LAC | 1162 | 52.5 | 47.3 | +11.6 |
| 18 | Chris Paul | GSW | 467 | 44.1 | 39.3 | +11.0 |
| 19 | CJ McCollum | NOP | 1055 | 45.9 | 42.1 | +10.8 |
| 20 | Luka Dončić | DAL | 1652 | 48.7 | 43.0 | +10.8 |
| 21 | Malik Beasley | MIL | 722 | 44.3 | 40.7 | +10.7 |
| 22 | Dante Exum | DAL | 302 | 53.3 | 49.9 | +10.4 |
| 23 | Jrue Holiday | BOS | 689 | 48.0 | 43.8 | +10.4 |
| 24 | Jalen Williams | OKC | 993 | 54.0 | 49.2 | +10.1 |
| 25 | Aaron Wiggins | OKC | 377 | 56.2 | 52.5 | +10.1 |
Ranked over 270 qualified players. This measures field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.