Austin Reaves led NBA in shot value in 2022-23 at +28.3 points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality, shot-making and drawn free throws in one number.
| # | Player | Team | Poss | Shot-making | Free throws | Points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Reaves | LAL | 594 | +8.3 | +13.5 | +28.3 |
| 2 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 1243 | +13.6 | +4.8 | +27.4 |
| 3 | Joel Embiid | PHI | 1685 | +4.8 | +19.3 | +25.3 |
| 4 | Kevin Durant | BKN / PHX | 1032 | +10.7 | +3.8 | +25.0 |
| 5 | Jimmy Butler III | MIA | 1047 | +2.7 | +21.9 | +24.4 |
| 6 | Stephen Curry | GSW | 1206 | +7.9 | −2.7 | +19.3 |
| 7 | Daniel Gafford | WAS | 500 | +7.8 | +12.7 | +18.9 |
| 8 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | 1645 | +1.1 | +16.1 | +18.7 |
| 9 | DeMar DeRozan | CHI | 1497 | +4.1 | +10.9 | +18.0 |
| 10 | Luka Dončić | DAL | 1725 | +5.5 | +12.0 | +17.4 |
| 11 | Luke Kennard | LAC / MEM | 392 | +8.9 | −13.4 | +16.8 |
| 12 | Kawhi Leonard | LAC | 955 | +5.7 | +3.3 | +16.5 |
| 13 | Zion Williamson | NOP | 583 | +3.3 | +17.0 | +16.2 |
| 14 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC | 1205 | +6.1 | +9.6 | +15.9 |
| 15 | Harrison Barnes | SAC | 901 | −0.3 | +17.9 | +15.8 |
| 16 | Collin Sexton | UTA | 544 | +3.4 | +10.0 | +15.4 |
| 17 | Mason Plumlee | CHA / LAC | 647 | +2.4 | +21.5 | +14.5 |
| 18 | Damian Lillard | POR | 1386 | +2.1 | +7.9 | +14.5 |
| 19 | Brandon Clarke | MEM | 420 | +5.9 | +8.3 | +14.2 |
| 20 | De'Aaron Fox | SAC | 1486 | +6.0 | +5.3 | +13.9 |
| 21 | Malcolm Brogdon | BOS | 782 | +5.1 | −0.6 | +13.9 |
| 22 | Alec Burks | DET | 499 | +2.5 | +7.7 | +13.9 |
| 23 | Kristaps Porziņģis | WAS | 1162 | +3.6 | +6.2 | +13.7 |
| 24 | Jalen Brunson | NYK | 1261 | +4.2 | +4.3 | +13.7 |
| 25 | Devin Booker | PHX | 1145 | +4.7 | +4.1 | +13.4 |
Ranked over 278 qualified players. This measures points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.