Luke Kennard led NBA in shot-making in 2022-23 at +26.3 field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality is already priced out, so this is shooting alone.
| # | Player | Team | FGA | FG% | Expected FG% | FG points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Kennard | LAC / MEM | 382 | 49.2 | 40.3 | +26.3 |
| 2 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 1022 | 63.2 | 49.6 | +22.7 |
| 3 | Stephen Curry | GSW | 1133 | 49.3 | 41.4 | +19.2 |
| 4 | Kevin Durant | BKN / PHX | 862 | 56.0 | 45.3 | +18.9 |
| 5 | Sam Hauser | BOS | 396 | 45.5 | 39.7 | +17.0 |
| 6 | Corey Kispert | WAS | 585 | 49.7 | 43.7 | +15.6 |
| 7 | Austin Reaves | LAL | 490 | 52.9 | 44.6 | +15.1 |
| 8 | Seth Curry | BKN | 449 | 46.3 | 40.4 | +13.7 |
| 9 | Isaiah Joe | OKC | 508 | 44.1 | 39.4 | +13.6 |
| 10 | Al Horford | BOS | 479 | 47.6 | 43.5 | +13.3 |
| 11 | Malcolm Brogdon | BOS | 732 | 48.4 | 43.3 | +12.7 |
| 12 | Kevin Huerter | SAC | 866 | 48.5 | 43.2 | +12.3 |
| 13 | Daniel Gafford | WAS | 395 | 73.2 | 65.4 | +12.3 |
| 14 | Kawhi Leonard | LAC | 871 | 51.2 | 45.5 | +11.9 |
| 15 | Joe Harris | BKN | 440 | 45.7 | 41.9 | +11.8 |
| 16 | Kyrie Irving | BKN / DAL | 1203 | 49.4 | 44.0 | +11.2 |
| 17 | Georges Niang | PHI | 502 | 44.2 | 40.1 | +11.0 |
| 18 | Michael Porter Jr. | DEN | 817 | 48.7 | 44.6 | +10.4 |
| 19 | Bojan Bogdanović | DET | 882 | 48.8 | 44.0 | +10.3 |
| 20 | Monte Morris | WAS | 515 | 48.0 | 42.9 | +10.3 |
| 21 | T.J. McConnell | IND | 521 | 54.3 | 48.9 | +10.2 |
| 22 | De'Aaron Fox | SAC | 1331 | 51.2 | 45.3 | +9.8 |
| 23 | Tyrese Haliburton | IND | 841 | 49.0 | 45.0 | +9.7 |
| 24 | Bogdan Bogdanović | ATL | 611 | 44.7 | 41.2 | +9.6 |
| 25 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC | 938 | 61.5 | 55.4 | +9.5 |
Ranked over 278 qualified players. This measures field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.