Joel Embiid led NBA in shot value in 2021-22 at +21.0 points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality, shot-making and drawn free throws in one number.
| # | Player | Team | Poss | Shot-making | Free throws | Points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Embiid | PHI | 1699 | +2.2 | +20.3 | +21.0 |
| 2 | Damian Jones | SAC | 345 | +7.7 | +13.7 | +20.7 |
| 3 | Rudy Gobert | UTA | 710 | +2.5 | +27.0 | +20.7 |
| 4 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 1549 | +10.7 | +2.3 | +20.4 |
| 5 | DeMar DeRozan | CHI | 1722 | +4.8 | +11.1 | +20.1 |
| 6 | Kevin Durant | BKN | 1277 | +8.0 | +2.7 | +19.7 |
| 7 | Montrezl Harrell | WAS / CHA | 677 | +3.3 | +20.0 | +18.7 |
| 8 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 1571 | +2.0 | +23.6 | +18.6 |
| 9 | Harrison Barnes | SAC | 967 | +1.7 | +15.7 | +17.8 |
| 10 | Jaxson Hayes | NOP | 474 | +1.3 | +18.7 | +16.3 |
| 11 | LaMarcus Aldridge | BKN | 488 | +7.8 | +0.5 | +16.1 |
| 12 | Jimmy Butler III | MIA | 976 | −0.7 | +19.6 | +16.1 |
| 13 | Deandre Ayton | PHX | 779 | +9.6 | −1.4 | +15.7 |
| 14 | Karl-Anthony Towns | MIN | 1432 | +3.4 | +8.4 | +14.8 |
| 15 | Hassan Whiteside | UTA | 406 | +5.6 | +13.0 | +14.5 |
| 16 | Richaun Holmes | SAC | 360 | +7.2 | +2.0 | +13.7 |
| 17 | Dwight Powell | DAL | 482 | −0.1 | +17.2 | +13.3 |
| 18 | Cameron Johnson | PHX | 606 | +4.4 | −1.8 | +12.8 |
| 19 | Jonas Valančiūnas | NOP | 1099 | +4.9 | +3.7 | +12.1 |
| 20 | Trey Lyles | DET / SAC | 648 | +0.7 | +14.4 | +12.0 |
| 21 | Kyrie Irving | BKN | 639 | +5.2 | −3.2 | +12.0 |
| 22 | Brandon Clarke | MEM | 475 | +6.6 | +3.8 | +12.0 |
| 23 | Austin Reaves | LAL | 358 | +3.2 | +7.3 | +11.8 |
| 24 | James Harden | BKN / PHI | 1281 | −2.4 | +16.3 | +11.8 |
| 25 | Norman Powell | POR / LAC | 678 | +0.3 | +10.2 | +11.6 |
Ranked over 287 qualified players. This measures points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.