Seth Curry led NBA in shot-making in 2021-22 at +19.1 field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality is already priced out, so this is shooting alone.
| # | Player | Team | FGA | FG% | Expected FG% | FG points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seth Curry | PHI / BKN | 739 | 48.7 | 40.3 | +19.1 |
| 2 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 1311 | 58.3 | 47.5 | +17.9 |
| 3 | Luke Kennard | LAC | 639 | 44.9 | 39.3 | +17.7 |
| 4 | Deandre Ayton | PHX | 697 | 63.4 | 53.8 | +17.2 |
| 5 | Kevin Durant | BKN | 1115 | 51.8 | 43.8 | +14.8 |
| 6 | LaMarcus Aldridge | BKN | 458 | 55.0 | 47.2 | +14.0 |
| 7 | Chris Paul | PHX | 736 | 49.3 | 41.3 | +13.7 |
| 8 | Cameron Johnson | PHX | 607 | 46.0 | 41.5 | +12.9 |
| 9 | Payton Pritchard | BOS | 373 | 42.9 | 39.0 | +12.8 |
| 10 | Jalen Brunson | DAL | 1008 | 50.2 | 43.8 | +12.6 |
| 11 | Gary Payton II | GSW | 344 | 61.6 | 54.8 | +12.5 |
| 12 | Kyrie Irving | BKN | 616 | 46.9 | 41.8 | +12.4 |
| 13 | Jrue Holiday | MIL | 954 | 50.1 | 44.2 | +12.4 |
| 14 | Richaun Holmes | SAC | 300 | 66.0 | 58.9 | +12.0 |
| 15 | Max Strus | MIA | 564 | 44.1 | 40.5 | +12.0 |
| 16 | Damian Jones | SAC | 266 | 65.8 | 58.1 | +11.9 |
| 17 | Brandon Clarke | MEM | 447 | 64.4 | 57.9 | +11.7 |
| 18 | Eric Gordon | HOU | 564 | 47.5 | 42.7 | +11.5 |
| 19 | Tyrese Haliburton | SAC / IND | 909 | 47.3 | 42.4 | +11.5 |
| 20 | Pat Connaughton | MIL | 496 | 45.8 | 41.9 | +11.2 |
| 21 | Mike Conley | UTA | 791 | 43.5 | 39.5 | +10.7 |
| 22 | Monte Morris | DEN | 773 | 48.4 | 43.8 | +10.3 |
| 23 | Bryn Forbes | SAS / DEN | 539 | 42.9 | 39.4 | +10.2 |
| 24 | Mikal Bridges | PHX | 858 | 53.4 | 48.1 | +9.9 |
| 25 | Anfernee Simons | POR | 797 | 44.3 | 40.7 | +9.9 |
Ranked over 287 qualified players. This measures field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.