Kevin Durant led NBA in shot value in 2020-21 at +23.4 points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality, shot-making and drawn free throws in one number.
| # | Player | Team | Poss | Shot-making | Free throws | Points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Durant | BKN | 720 | +8.5 | +5.4 | +23.4 |
| 2 | Joel Embiid | PHI | 1136 | +4.0 | +17.5 | +23.1 |
| 3 | DeMar DeRozan | SAS | 1078 | +2.9 | +17.9 | +21.9 |
| 4 | Stephen Curry | GSW | 1514 | +7.3 | +1.1 | +21.1 |
| 5 | Robin Lopez | WAS | 490 | +12.0 | +1.3 | +20.4 |
| 6 | Richaun Holmes | SAC | 656 | +8.5 | +5.3 | +19.1 |
| 7 | Danilo Gallinari | ATL | 514 | +3.6 | +7.3 | +19.0 |
| 8 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 1444 | +9.2 | −0.7 | +18.2 |
| 9 | Jimmy Butler III | MIA | 894 | −0.1 | +18.6 | +16.3 |
| 10 | Joe Ingles | UTA | 627 | +9.2 | −9.0 | +16.1 |
| 11 | Bryn Forbes | MIL | 519 | +8.3 | −8.8 | +15.9 |
| 12 | Zion Williamson | NOP | 1231 | +1.3 | +20.6 | +15.1 |
| 13 | Michael Porter Jr. | DEN | 855 | +7.2 | −3.7 | +14.9 |
| 14 | Kawhi Leonard | LAC | 988 | +4.8 | +3.2 | +14.8 |
| 15 | Marcus Morris Sr. | LAC | 586 | +6.6 | −6.4 | +14.6 |
| 16 | Damian Lillard | POR | 1483 | +2.1 | +4.9 | +13.8 |
| 17 | Joe Harris | BKN | 709 | +7.4 | −10.6 | +13.5 |
| 18 | James Harden | HOU / BKN | 893 | +2.8 | +7.6 | +13.3 |
| 19 | Bradley Beal | WAS | 1499 | +3.8 | +5.0 | +13.3 |
| 20 | Jalen Brunson | DAL | 673 | +7.0 | −2.4 | +12.9 |
| 21 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 1372 | +1.3 | +19.1 | +12.8 |
| 22 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | 670 | +3.1 | +5.6 | +12.2 |
| 23 | Montrezl Harrell | LAL | 691 | +2.0 | +14.2 | +11.9 |
| 24 | Harrison Barnes | SAC | 733 | +2.5 | +6.5 | +11.7 |
| 25 | Luka Dončić | DAL | 1602 | +4.7 | +5.6 | +11.6 |
Ranked over 270 qualified players. This measures points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.