Bryn Forbes led NBA in shot-making in 2020-21 at +22.8 field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality is already priced out, so this is shooting alone.
| # | Player | Team | FGA | FG% | Expected FG% | FG points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryn Forbes | MIL | 529 | 47.3 | 39.0 | +22.8 |
| 2 | Joe Ingles | UTA | 562 | 48.9 | 39.7 | +22.6 |
| 3 | Joe Harris | BKN | 707 | 50.5 | 43.1 | +21.8 |
| 4 | Robin Lopez | WAS | 425 | 63.3 | 51.3 | +20.4 |
| 5 | Marcus Morris Sr. | LAC | 584 | 47.3 | 40.7 | +19.1 |
| 6 | Luke Kennard | LAC | 414 | 47.6 | 40.9 | +18.3 |
| 7 | Stephen Curry | GSW | 1365 | 48.2 | 40.9 | +17.6 |
| 8 | Michael Porter Jr. | DEN | 817 | 54.2 | 47.1 | +17.6 |
| 9 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 1293 | 56.6 | 47.4 | +17.3 |
| 10 | Chris Paul | PHX | 879 | 49.9 | 41.7 | +16.8 |
| 11 | Kevin Durant | BKN | 603 | 53.7 | 45.2 | +16.8 |
| 12 | Bogdan Bogdanović | ATL | 565 | 47.3 | 41.5 | +16.3 |
| 13 | Seth Curry | PHI | 552 | 46.7 | 40.9 | +15.9 |
| 14 | Ty Jerome | OKC | 287 | 44.6 | 38.7 | +15.8 |
| 15 | Richaun Holmes | SAC | 575 | 63.6 | 55.2 | +14.6 |
| 16 | Jalen Brunson | DAL | 627 | 52.3 | 45.4 | +14.4 |
| 17 | Wayne Ellington | DET | 338 | 44.1 | 39.4 | +14.0 |
| 18 | Cameron Payne | PHX | 395 | 48.4 | 43.2 | +13.6 |
| 19 | Tyrese Haliburton | SAC | 619 | 47.2 | 41.9 | +13.3 |
| 20 | Jamal Murray | DEN | 792 | 47.7 | 42.3 | +13.0 |
| 21 | Kyrie Irving | BKN | 1086 | 50.5 | 44.7 | +12.8 |
| 22 | Duncan Robinson | MIA | 717 | 43.9 | 39.5 | +12.6 |
| 23 | Mikal Bridges | PHX | 669 | 54.3 | 49.0 | +12.5 |
| 24 | Robert Williams III | BOS | 258 | 72.1 | 64.7 | +12.3 |
| 25 | Dāvis Bertāns | WAS | 478 | 40.4 | 36.7 | +12.1 |
Ranked over 270 qualified players. This measures field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.