Gabriel Lundberg led Lega Basket Serie A in shot-making in 2023-24 at +24.1 field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality is already priced out, so this is shooting alone.
| # | Player | Team | FGA | FG% | Expected FG% | FG points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel Lundberg | Bologna | 173 | 53.8 | 43.1 | +24.1 |
| 2 | Kruize Pinkins | Scafati | 204 | 58.3 | 47.2 | +18.4 |
| 3 | Brandon Jefferson | Sassari | 148 | 48.0 | 39.7 | +18.3 |
| 4 | C.J. Massinburg | Brescia | 232 | 51.3 | 44.5 | +17.3 |
| 5 | Shabazz Napier | Milano | 138 | 50.7 | 41.9 | +16.6 |
| 6 | Marco Belinelli | Bologna | 277 | 44.4 | 38.7 | +16.0 |
| 7 | Andrejs Grazulis | Trentino | 241 | 53.9 | 47.0 | +15.4 |
| 8 | Stephane Gombauld | Sassari | 199 | 67.8 | 59.2 | +14.3 |
| 9 | Daniel Hackett | Bologna | 141 | 53.2 | 45.9 | +14.3 |
| 10 | Jamar Smith | Reggio Emilia | 253 | 47.0 | 39.8 | +14.3 |
| 11 | Gabe Brown | Varese | 259 | 48.3 | 42.4 | +13.5 |
| 12 | Sean McDermott | Varese | 266 | 46.6 | 41.6 | +13.4 |
| 13 | Trevon Bluiett | Pesaro | 225 | 46.2 | 41.1 | +13.3 |
| 14 | Riccardo Rossato | Scafati | 206 | 45.6 | 39.3 | +12.8 |
| 15 | Nikola Mirotic | Milano | 141 | 48.2 | 42.8 | +12.4 |
| 16 | Scott Bamforth | Pesaro | 204 | 44.6 | 39.4 | +11.9 |
| 17 | Alessandro Gentile | Scafati | 240 | 50.4 | 43.1 | +11.9 |
| 18 | Valerio Mazzola | Pesaro | 121 | 45.5 | 40.4 | +9.8 |
| 19 | Payton Willis | Pistoia | 382 | 44.8 | 40.8 | +9.6 |
| 20 | Trevor Lacey | Cremona | 253 | 44.3 | 39.2 | +8.8 |
| 21 | Tommaso Baldasso | Tortona | 277 | 40.1 | 37.6 | +8.5 |
| 22 | Davide Alviti | Trentino | 202 | 50.0 | 45.9 | +8.4 |
| 23 | Alfonzo Mckinnie | Sassari | 168 | 54.8 | 50.4 | +8.3 |
| 24 | Nate Laszewski | Brindisi | 181 | 45.9 | 44.0 | +8.1 |
| 25 | Kyle Wiltjer | Venezia | 267 | 46.8 | 43.4 | +8.0 |
Ranked over 121 qualified players. This measures field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.