Billy Baron led Lega Basket Serie A in shot-making in 2022-23 at +22.8 field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions. Shot quality is already priced out, so this is shooting alone.
| # | Player | Team | FGA | FG% | Expected FG% | FG points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Baron | Milano | 153 | 50.3 | 39.6 | +22.8 |
| 2 | Marco Spissu | Venezia | 183 | 47.0 | 40.0 | +19.7 |
| 3 | Vasilis Charalampopoulos | Pesaro | 164 | 50.0 | 41.6 | +18.3 |
| 4 | Filip Kruslin | Sassari | 209 | 46.4 | 42.1 | +14.6 |
| 5 | Kyle Weems | Bologna | 189 | 50.3 | 43.5 | +14.0 |
| 6 | Jeff Brooks | Venezia | 104 | 53.8 | 46.5 | +13.7 |
| 7 | Eimantas Bendzius | Sassari | 280 | 45.4 | 41.1 | +12.3 |
| 8 | Alessandro Zanelli | Treviso | 161 | 46.6 | 41.5 | +12.2 |
| 9 | Dejan Kravic | Pesaro | 224 | 57.6 | 51.0 | +12.1 |
| 10 | John Petrucelli | Brescia | 196 | 53.1 | 49.2 | +11.7 |
| 11 | Nicolò Melli | Milano | 160 | 57.5 | 51.7 | +11.6 |
| 12 | Andrew Crawford | Trentino | 229 | 46.3 | 42.1 | +11.3 |
| 13 | Daniel Hackett | Bologna | 123 | 45.5 | 39.8 | +11.0 |
| 14 | Davide Moretti | Pesaro | 246 | 45.5 | 40.0 | +10.8 |
| 15 | Chris Dowe | Sassari | 221 | 49.8 | 44.0 | +10.5 |
| 16 | Michele Vitali | Reggio Emilia | 108 | 45.4 | 40.9 | +10.5 |
| 17 | Leon Radosevic | Tortona | 164 | 55.5 | 48.4 | +10.1 |
| 18 | Jordan Howard | Napoli | 307 | 42.3 | 38.8 | +9.9 |
| 19 | David Logan | Scafati | 368 | 42.1 | 39.4 | +9.7 |
| 20 | Mitchell Watt | Venezia | 237 | 62.4 | 56.2 | +9.6 |
| 21 | Semaj Christon | Tortona | 400 | 48.0 | 42.8 | +9.5 |
| 22 | Derek Willis | Venezia | 196 | 50.5 | 47.0 | +9.2 |
| 23 | JaCorey Williams | Napoli | 318 | 62.9 | 57.4 | +8.7 |
| 24 | Justin Reyes | Varese | 122 | 51.6 | 48.7 | +8.5 |
| 25 | Marco Belinelli | Bologna | 285 | 42.5 | 38.8 | +7.9 |
Ranked over 118 qualified players. This measures field-goal points over expected per 100 possessions; it does not separate playstyle, skill and officiating, and it is not a causal claim about any of them.
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26. What this metric is and what it misses: definition.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.