COV 86-93 BAR, April 13, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. BAR beat COV 93-86, but COV's shots were worth 96.9 points to BAR's 91.4.

COV 86-93 BAR, April 13, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
COV	68	66	76.1	20/27	20.9	86	96.9
BAR	60	71	69.2	22/29	22.2	93	91.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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