BRE 83-80 COR, January 12, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. BRE beat COR 83-80, but COR's shots were worth 84.3 points to BRE's 81.9.

BRE 83-80 COR, January 12, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
BRE	60	67	65.0	16/22	16.9	83	81.9
COR	60	64	66.7	16/23	17.5	80	84.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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