UCM 88-81 ILE, January 12, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. UCM beat ILE 88-81, but ILE's shots were worth 102.2 points to UCM's 87.7.

UCM 88-81 ILE, January 12, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
UCM	61	71	72.4	17/20	15.3	88	87.7
ILE	64	61	80.1	20/29	22.0	81	102.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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