COV 82-97 DGC, January 5, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DGC beat COV 97-82, but COV's shots were worth 88.5 points to DGC's 77.0.

COV 82-97 DGC, January 5, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
COV	65	64	73.7	18/19	14.8	82	88.5
DGC	60	86	66.2	11/14	10.8	97	77.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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