Each player's adjusted plus-minus is measured against a replacement level of -2 points per 100 possessions, scaled by the share of his team's possessions he played, and converted at 2.7 wins per point of value over replacement.
The standard VORP formula takes its impact term from a box-score estimate. This layer uses the ridge-fitted RAPM net rating instead (rapm_net_prior), so a player who helps in ways the box score does not record is not penalised for it, and the defensive half is not a rebound count wearing a defence label.
At -2 points per 100 possessions, applied to every player above the 2000-possession floor across 6 seasons. Season length matters for the conversion, so team games are read per season rather than assumed at 82: 2020-21 72, 2021-22 82, 2022-23 82, 2023-24 82, 2024-25 82, 2025-26 82.
Contract surplus, the half of this layer that would put a price on a win, does not ship. No free licensed per-player salary source exists, so the board says so rather than rendering an empty money column or an estimate dressed as a figure. The pipeline reads salaries the moment a file appears.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.