Glossary

What do the Over Expected metrics mean?

This glossary defines all 27 quantities the site publishes, each with its unit, the range it actually takes across every published value, and an explicit statement of what it does not measure.

The 27 metrics Over Expected publishes
MetricUnitApplies to
Points over expected per 100 possessionspoints per 100 possessionsplayer
Expected points per shotpoints per field-goal attemptplayer
Expected field goal percentagepercentplayer
Shot-making over expectedpercentage points of field goal percentageplayer
Field-goal points over expected per 100points per 100 possessionsplayer
Free throws drawn over expected per 100free-throw attempts per 100 possessionsplayer
Expected free throws attemptedfree-throw attemptsplayer
Percentilepercentile, 0 to 100player
Qualifying possessionspossessionsplayer
Team shot value per 100points per 100 possessionsteam
Team shot-making per 100points per 100 possessionsteam
Free throws drawn, teamfree throws per 100 possessions vs expectationteam
Free throws conceded, teamfree throws per 100 possessions vs expectationteam
Offensive RAPMpoints per 100 possessionsplayer
Defensive RAPMpoints per 100 possessionsplayer
Net RAPMpoints per 100 possessionsplayer
RAPM standard errorpoints per 100 possessionsplayer
Lineup net points per 100points per 100 possessionslineup
Lineup expected points per 100points per 100 possessionslineup
Lineup synergy per 100points per 100 possessionslineup
Wins over replacementwinsplayer
Value over replacementpoints per 100 team possessionsplayer
Shot quality forcedexpected points per shot vs leagueteam
Rim deterrenceshare of shots faced at the rimteam
Conversion suppressionpoints per shot below expectationteam
Points allowed per 100points per 100 defensive possessionsteam
Decision expected-value lostpoints of win probabilityteam

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.