ATL 83-88 GSV, July 4, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. GSV beat ATL 88-83, but ATL's shots were worth 98.7 points to GSV's 86.0.

ATL 83-88 GSV, July 4, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	66	60	72.7	23/33	26.0	83	98.7
GSV	67	75	72.5	13/17	13.5	88	86.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.