ATL 75-77 GSV, July 29, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. GSV beat ATL 77-75, but ATL's shots were worth 84.2 points to GSV's 74.5.

ATL 75-77 GSV, July 29, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	64	59	67.8	16/21	16.5	75	84.2
GSV	63	71	68.0	6/8	6.5	77	74.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.