CON 95-64 GSV, July 27, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CON beat GSV 95-64, but GSV's shots were worth 80.7 points to CON's 76.9.

CON 95-64 GSV, July 27, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CON	66	82	65.5	13/14	11.4	95	76.9
GSV	59	49	61.9	15/23	18.8	64	80.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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