MIN 79-66 PHX, July 16, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIN beat PHX 79-66, but PHX's shots were worth 85.2 points to MIN's 80.3.

MIN 79-66 PHX, July 16, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIN	68	68	68.8	11/14	11.5	79	80.3
PHX	70	57	73.8	9/15	11.4	66	85.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All WNBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.