CHI 87-81 MIN, July 12, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CHI beat MIN 87-81, but MIN's shots were worth 89.8 points to CHI's 89.7.

CHI 87-81 MIN, July 12, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CHI	76	74	77.5	13/16	12.2	87	89.7
MIN	76	70	79.0	11/13	10.8	81	89.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All WNBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.