CON 68-86 LVA, July 6, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. LVA beat CON 86-68, but CON's shots were worth 80.7 points to LVA's 78.6.

CON 68-86 LVA, July 6, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CON	63	53	65.8	15/19	14.8	68	80.7
LVA	63	77	68.3	9/13	10.3	86	78.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All WNBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.