WAS 94-90 ATL, May 16, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. WAS beat ATL 94-90, but ATL's shots were worth 92.3 points to WAS's 82.0.

WAS 94-90 ATL, May 16, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
WAS	61	71	57.5	23/31	24.5	94	82.0
ATL	74	72	71.3	18/27	21.0	90	92.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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