NOP 120-123 IND, October 21, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. IND beat NOP 123-120, but NOP's shots were worth 125.6 points to IND's 121.5.

NOP 120-123 IND, October 21, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
NOP	89	86	96.5	34/37	29.1	120	125.6
IND	90	103	99.5	20/29	22.0	123	121.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2026-27

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.