LAL 127-105 GSW, October 21, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. LAL beat GSW 127-105, but GSW's shots were worth 115.6 points to LAL's 111.7.

LAL 127-105 GSW, October 21, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
LAL	81	103	90.3	24/27	21.4	127	111.7
GSW	92	84	94.3	21/27	21.2	105	115.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2026-27

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.