DEN 128-125 HOU, December 15, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. DEN beat HOU 128-125, and DEN's shots were worth 120.9 points to HOU's 120.7.

DEN 128-125 HOU, December 15, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	85	101	93.3	27/33	27.7	128	120.9
HOU	93	106	100.8	19/26	19.9	125	120.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.