ATL 120-117 PHI, December 14, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ATL beat PHI 120-117, but PHI's shots were worth 130.3 points to ATL's 124.2.

ATL 120-117 PHI, December 14, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	99	103	107.9	17/21	16.3	120	124.2
PHI	101	93	107.4	24/29	22.9	117	130.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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